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How much the house really keeps in each competition, measured on real markets. It refreshes itself and the full methodology is below.
Measured across 728 match-result markets in 75 competitions
Latest data: 23 Oct, 16:07
The range is huge depending on where you bet: from 0.50% in NBA to 9.27% in Colombia Primera B. On the same money staked, that is the difference between an almost fair market and one that keeps several times as much.
Lowest first. The middle column is what the market returns per 100 staked — the same figure said in money.
| Competition | Margin | Returns per 100 | Markets |
|---|---|---|---|
| NBA | 0.50 % | 99.5 € | 12 |
| NFL | 0.66 % | 99.3 € | 13 |
| Bundesliga | 0.71 % | 99.3 € | 9 |
| Championship | 0.74 % | 99.3 € | 11 |
| ATP Torneos | 0.90 % | 99.1 € | 19 |
| Eredivisie | 1.01 % | 99.0 € | 9 |
| League One | 1.21 % | 98.8 € | 12 |
| NCAAF | 1.27 % | 98.8 € | 48 |
| Premier League | 1.33 % | 98.7 € | 20 |
| La Liga | 1.33 % | 98.7 € | 17 |
| MMA | 1.33 % | 98.7 € | 14 |
| 2. Bundesliga | 1.77 % | 98.3 € | 9 |
| Escocia Premiership | 1.79 % | 98.2 € | 6 |
| Portugal Primeira Liga | 1.89 % | 98.1 € | 9 |
| Países Bajos Eerste Divisie | 1.95 % | 98.1 € | 10 |
| A-League (Australia) | 2.00 % | 98.0 € | 5 |
| Ligue 1 | 2.05 % | 98.0 € | 18 |
| Saudi Pro League | 2.14 % | 97.9 € | 5 |
| Turquía Süper Lig | 2.15 % | 97.9 € | 8 |
| Austria 2. Liga | 2.26 % | 97.8 € | 6 |
| League Two | 2.40 % | 97.7 € | 12 |
| Rumanía Superliga | 2.46 % | 97.6 € | 6 |
| Serie A | 2.48 % | 97.6 € | 18 |
| K League 1 (Corea) | 2.48 % | 97.6 € | 6 |
| Brasileirão | 2.50 % | 97.6 € | 11 |
| Suecia Allsvenskan | 2.53 % | 97.5 € | 8 |
| Ligue 2 | 2.54 % | 97.5 € | 8 |
| J League (Japón) | 2.74 % | 97.3 € | 10 |
| Brasileirão Série B | 2.81 % | 97.3 € | 5 |
| China Super League | 2.81 % | 97.3 € | 8 |
| Segunda División | 2.89 % | 97.2 € | 11 |
| MLS | 2.96 % | 97.1 € | 15 |
| Irlanda League of Ireland | 3.00 % | 97.1 € | 7 |
| Polonia Ekstraklasa | 3.24 % | 96.9 € | 9 |
| EFL Cup | 3.30 % | 96.8 € | 8 |
| DFB-Pokal | 3.33 % | 96.8 € | 15 |
| Liga MX | 3.33 % | 96.8 € | 9 |
| Champions League | 3.39 % | 96.7 € | 17 |
| Argentina Primera División | 3.41 % | 96.7 € | 22 |
| Liiga (Finlandia) | 3.48 % | 96.6 € | 5 |
| Suiza National League (hockey) | 3.55 % | 96.6 € | 8 |
| Suecia Superettan | 3.74 % | 96.4 € | 7 |
| ACB | 3.77 % | 96.4 € | 9 |
| Bélgica First Div | 3.84 % | 96.3 € | 9 |
| Chequia Extraliga (hockey) | 3.87 % | 96.3 € | 6 |
| Euroliga | 3.88 % | 96.3 € | 15 |
| Noruega Eliteserien | 3.98 % | 96.2 € | 6 |
| SHL (Suecia) | 4.03 % | 96.1 € | 7 |
| Serie B (Italia) | 4.08 % | 96.1 € | 9 |
| Serbia Superliga | 4.14 % | 96.0 € | 5 |
| Colombia Primera A | 4.33 % | 95.9 € | 7 |
| 3. Liga | 4.43 % | 95.8 € | 7 |
| Dinamarca Superliga | 4.58 % | 95.6 € | 5 |
| Chile Primera División | 4.69 % | 95.5 € | 6 |
| Chequia 1. Liga | 4.75 % | 95.5 € | 8 |
| Ecuador LigaPro | 4.78 % | 95.4 € | 7 |
| Austria Bundesliga | 5.19 % | 95.1 € | 6 |
| Portugal Liga 2 | 5.25 % | 95.0 € | 8 |
| Estonia Meistriliiga | 5.38 % | 94.9 € | 5 |
| WTA Torneos | 6.27 % | 94.1 € | 13 |
| Uruguay Primera División | 6.30 % | 94.1 € | 8 |
| Eslovaquia Superliga | 6.33 % | 94.0 € | 6 |
| K League 2 (Corea) | 6.38 % | 94.0 € | 8 |
| J League 2 (Japón) | 6.51 % | 93.9 € | 10 |
| Dinamarca 1. División | 6.87 % | 93.6 € | 5 |
| Argentina Primera Nacional | 6.92 % | 93.5 € | 6 |
| Perú Liga 1 | 7.23 % | 93.3 € | 8 |
| Suiza Super League | 7.29 % | 93.2 € | 5 |
| Turquía 1. Lig | 7.31 % | 93.2 € | 8 |
| Grecia Super League | 7.70 % | 92.9 € | 7 |
| Polonia I Liga | 7.84 % | 92.7 € | 8 |
| China League 1 | 8.17 % | 92.4 € | 6 |
| Hungría NB I | 8.68 % | 92.0 € | 5 |
| Noruega 1. División | 9.18 % | 91.6 € | 8 |
| Colombia Primera B | 9.27 % | 91.5 € | 7 |
What is measured: the overround of the match-result market. The implied probabilities of every option are added up; whatever exceeds 100% is the margin. A perfectly fair market would sum to exactly 100%. Where the odds come from: the same board the platform uses to seal picks, refreshed through normal use. Not a single extra API call is made for this page. The bias, stated up front: the odds are Betfair Exchange, one of the tightest markets there is. At a traditional bookmaker margins are considerably higher, so these figures are the FLOOR of the industry, not the average. What is discarded: markets with an overround above 115% (unformed books, not real prices) and negative ones (momentary arbitrage). Only competitions with at least 5 measured markets are published: with fewer, the average is noise.
How that margin compounds in a parlay →
Convert odds and see their implied probability →
And for what tools cannot tell you: tipsters with a verified record →
It depends enormously on where you bet. In the data on this page, measured on live exchange markets, the average match-result margin sits around 2-3%, with major competitions below 1% and others above 5%. At traditional bookmakers it is usually much more: between 5% and 10% in football, and above 15% in secondary markets and minor sports.
It is how much a market's implied probabilities add up beyond 100%. If an even match were priced 2.00 and 2.00, each option would imply 50% and the sum would be exactly 100: the house would make nothing. Offering 1.91 and 1.91 pushes the sum to 104.7%, and that extra 4.7% is its margin. The higher it is, the worse for the punter.
Liquidity. In a competition with a lot of money moving, competition between punters tightens the prices and the margin narrows. In a minor league or sport there is little money, nobody corrects the prices, and the house can afford a much larger margin. That is why betting on small markets costs more even when the odds look attractive.
It is what you must beat before earning a single euro. At a 5% margin, a punter who hits exactly what the odds say loses that 5% long-term. And in a parlay the margin compounds: five legs at 5% leave an expectation of losing 22.6%. Choosing where you bet matters as much as choosing what you bet.
Measured on real picks published here: the odds the tipster took against the price left just before kick-off.
Measured on 60 picks with a complete price series.
Odds shortening means the market agreed with the tipster: money came in on the same outcome after them and the price dropped. For anyone copying the pick, that is money lost by arriving late — those odds are gone. This is CLV seen from the outside, and the reason this platform seals the price at the exact second of publishing.