paiker Founder
36 verified picks · average odds 2.20 · mostly Fútbol Europa Segunda Línea · since August 2026
Tipster total (all their circuits)
Breakdown by circuit
- Fútbol Europa Segunda Líneayou are here30 · +5.26 units
- Fútbol Resto del Mundo y Selecciones6 · -0.29 units
Every yield on this page is the real one, unweighted. The one weighted by competition and bookmaker liquidity — the one that feeds the rating, and which does not match this one — lives in the rating breakdown further down.
Subscribe to this tipster
Insufficient track recordIn this circuit — Fútbol Europa Segunda Línea
best streak 7 · worst streak 3
Shaded band: the range the result could fall in by pure luck with no real edge at all. Once the curve steps outside it, luck alone stops explaining it.
- units
- +5.3
- Yield
- +17.6%
- max. drawdown
- −3.0
The deepest fall of the bank from a peak, in units. What someone joining at the worst moment would have endured.
Shaded band: the range the result could fall in by pure luck with no real edge at all. Once the curve steps outside it, luck alone stops explaining it.
- units
- +5.3
- Yield
- +17.6%
- max. drawdown
- −3.0
The deepest fall of the bank from a peak, in units. What someone joining at the worst moment would have endured.
The same history as if every pick had risked exactly 1 unit. If these figures resemble the real ones, the profit comes from picking well; if they diverge a lot, it comes from juggling stakes.
Skill vs luck
Over a few dozen picks, the actual result is mostly noise. The signal of judgement is beating the market's closing price — this separates the two.
What this history should have returned if every pick paid exactly its edge over the close.
The real result of those same picks.
Running hot: the result is ahead of what the edge justifies.
Over 29 picks with a closing price. The gap is variance and shrinks as the sample grows: long term, results converge to what the edge justifies.
Month-by-month result
1/1 months closed in profit
- +5.3Aug
What is left if you arrive late
The yield published everywhere is the one from the exact second the tipster sends the pick. You get there a few minutes later, and by then the odds have moved. This is what you would have got.
| Delay | picks | Odds movement | Tipster's yield | Your yield | Retained |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 min | 29 | +0.1% | +21.6% | +21.6% | 100% |
| 5 min | 29 | -0.0% | +21.6% | +21.4% | 99% |
| 15 min | 29 | -0.2% | +21.6% | +21.3% | 99% |
| 60 min | 29 | -0.4% | +21.6% | +21.5% | 100% |
Worked out from the market's own price history: for each pick we check which odds were still available after those minutes. Picks we could not measure are left out, and voided ones too. Odds shortening is not a bad sign — it usually means the market agreed with them.
Performance by competition
Where they build their record, and with what result, sorted by number of picks. The yield is the real, unweighted one, same as everywhere else on this page.
| Competition | picks | Accuracy | units | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dinamarca Superliga | 5 | 80% | +2.4 | +47.8% |
| Noruega Eliteserien | 5 | 60% | +0.8 | +15.7% |
| Polonia Ekstraklasa | 4 | 50% | -0.5 | -11.5% |
| Finlandia Veikkausliiga | 3 | 67% | +1.9 | +63.6% |
| Austria Bundesliga | 3 | 67% | +1.2 | +38.6% |
| Suecia Allsvenskan | 3 | 67% | +1.0 | +32.8% |
| Escocia Premiership | 3 | 33% | -0.8 | -25.5% |
| EFL Cup | 2 | 50% | +0.8 | +38.3% |
| Suiza Super League | 1 | 0% | -0.5 | -50.0% |
| Suecia Superettan | 1 | 0% | -1.0 | -100.0% |
▸ Rating breakdown
- Weighted yield
- 68.8 (15.7%)
- Consistency
- 97.0 (100% positive months, max. drawdown 3.0%)
- Calibrated CLV
- 100.0 (avg. CLV 1.52%)
- Discipline
- 50.0
Latest picks
- LOST
Escocia Premiership — Celtic Glasgow vs Dundee FC — Celtic Glasgow (-2)
Odds 1.88sealed at Betfair Exchange - WON
Suecia Allsvenskan — Halmstads BK vs IK Sirius — IK Sirius (-1.25)
Odds 1.83sealed at Betfair Exchange - LOST
Suecia Superettan — Orebro SK vs IFK Varnamo — Orebro SK
Odds 2.40sealed at Betfair Exchange - WON
Suecia Allsvenskan — Djurgardens IF vs Vasteraas SK — Djurgardens IF (-1.5)
Odds 2.26sealed at Betfair Exchange - LOST
Polonia Ekstraklasa — KS Cracovia Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin — KS Cracovia Krakow
Odds 2.36sealed at Betfair Exchange - WON
Dinamarca Superliga — Odense Boldklub vs Soenderjyske — Odense Boldklub
Odds 2.28sealed at Betfair Exchange - LOST
Finlandia Veikkausliiga — Seinajoen JK vs HJK Helsinki — HJK Helsinki
Odds 2.06sealed at Betfair Exchange - LOST
EFL Cup — York City FC vs Crawley Town — York City FC (-1)
Odds 2.10sealed at Betfair Exchange - WON
Finlandia Veikkausliiga — AC Oulu vs Tampereen Ilves — AC Oulu
Odds 2.44sealed at Betfair Exchange - WON
Finlandia Veikkausliiga — Vaasan Palloseura vs FC Inter Turku — FC Inter Turku
Odds 2.62sealed at Betfair Exchange
Ratings and comments
No comments yet.