Bankroll management: how much to bet per pick
The part that decides whether you last, and that almost nobody looks at until it is too late.
Why this matters more than being right
You can have judgement and still lose everything. Two people making exactly the same bets can end the year one in profit and the other with no bankroll, and the only difference is how much they risked on each. Bankroll management does not improve your picks: it decides whether you stay alive long enough for your judgement to show.
What a bankroll is and is not
Money set aside for this that you could lose entirely without anything changing in your life. Not what is in your account, not next month’s pay. The rule that makes it real: when it is gone, it is gone. Top it up and you never had a bankroll, you had a moving budget — and no management is possible with one.
Units, not currency
Stakes are measured in units. One unit is usually 1 % of the bankroll: with €1,000, a unit is €10. It is done this way so records can be compared — and it is why picks here carry a stake from 1 to 10 rather than an amount: the record means the same whether you follow with €100 or €10,000.
How much to risk per bet
Between 1 % and 3 %. Bad runs always come, even when betting well: ten losers in a row is perfectly normal in any long record. At 2 % that is 20 units and you are still standing. At 10 % the bankroll is gone.
Flat betting: boring and hard to beat
- Almost nobody can really tell their good bets from their very good ones.
- It removes the emotional decision — which is where bankrolls die, not in the picks.
Chasing losses
Raising stakes after losing to win it back. It fails because bets are independent: losing five in a row does not make the sixth more likely. All that changed is that you now risk double with the same judgement that lost the previous five.
The Kelly criterion
Kelly gives the optimal stake for a given edge. It is mathematically sound, but depends on estimating your own edge correctly, and almost everybody overestimates. With a wrong edge it overbets and ruins you faster than flat staking. Half or quarter Kelly is what serious users apply; flat at 1-2 % is more sensible when starting.
Frequently asked questions about bankroll
What is a bankroll?
It is the money you have set aside for betting and could lose entirely without it affecting your life. Not what is in your bank account, not what you might earn later: a closed amount, decided before you start, that does not get topped up when it runs out.
What is a stake in betting?
How much you risk on a given bet, measured in units rather than in currency. With a €1,000 bankroll and 1 % units, one unit is €10. Talking in units lets you compare two bettors with different bankrolls, and is what makes a record mean the same thing to everybody.
How much should I stake per pick?
Between 1 % and 3 % of the bankroll is where almost everyone who lasts operates. Above 5 %, an ordinary bad run — and one always comes — wipes you out before your edge has time to show up.
What is flat betting and why does it work?
Risking the same amount every time, regardless of how certain a pick feels. It works because almost nobody can really tell their good bets from their very good ones, and because it removes the biggest bankroll killer: raising stakes while losing.
Should I raise stakes when losing to catch up?
No. It is the fastest and most common way to lose the lot. It is called chasing, and it fails because bets are independent: losing five in a row does not make the sixth more likely to win. All that changes is that you now risk more with the same judgement as before.
What is the Kelly criterion?
A formula for the optimal stake given the edge you believe you have. It is mathematically sound but has a catch: it depends on estimating your own edge correctly, and almost everybody overestimates it. With a wrong edge, Kelly overbets and ruins you faster than flat staking. Half Kelly, or just flat, is more sensible for most people.