Abel

Shaded band: the range the result could fall in by pure luck with no real edge at all. Once the curve steps outside it, luck alone stops explaining it.

units

−3.4

Yield

−38.2 %

max. drawdown

−3.4

The deepest fall of the bank from a peak, in units. What someone joining at the worst moment would have endured.

The real result of those same picks.

Over 3 picks with a closing price. The gap is variance and shrinks as the sample grows: long term, results converge to what the edge justifies.

Worked out from the market's own price history: for each pick we check which odds were still available after those minutes. Picks we could not measure are left out, and voided ones too. Odds shortening is not a bad sign — it usually means the market agreed with them.