Aquenlla
Especialista en mercados de empate en fútbol europeo. Selecciones basadas en un método sistemático y objetivo, con staking fijo y enfoque a largo plazo.
Their verified record
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1/4Here you only get to charge once you have proven it with numbers, and these are theirs right now. Nobody decides it by looking at them: either they meet them or they do not.
- Weighted yield: 59.2% of 4%
- Rating: 54.2 of 55
- Settled picks: 2 of 150
- Days since your first pick: 3 of 30
best streak 1 · worst streak 1
Shaded band: the range the result could fall in by pure luck with no real edge at all. Once the curve steps outside it, luck alone stops explaining it.
- units
- +1.2
- Yield
- +59.2%
- max. drawdown
- −1.0
The deepest fall of the bank from a peak, in units. What someone joining at the worst moment would have endured.
Shaded band: the range the result could fall in by pure luck with no real edge at all. Once the curve steps outside it, luck alone stops explaining it.
- units
- +1.2
- Yield
- +59.2%
- max. drawdown
- −1.0
The deepest fall of the bank from a peak, in units. What someone joining at the worst moment would have endured.
The same history as if every pick had risked exactly 1 unit. If these figures resemble the real ones, the profit comes from picking well; if they diverge a lot, it comes from juggling stakes.
Skill vs luck
Over a few dozen picks, the actual result is mostly noise. The signal of judgement is beating the market's closing price — this separates the two.
What this history should have returned if every pick paid exactly its edge over the close.
The real result of those same picks.
Running hot: the result is ahead of what the edge justifies.
Over 2 picks with a closing price. The gap is variance and shrinks as the sample grows: long term, results converge to what the edge justifies.
Month-by-month result
1/1 months closed in profit
- +1.2Sep
What is left if you arrive late
The yield published everywhere is the one from the exact second the tipster sends the pick. You get there a few minutes later, and by then the odds have moved. This is what you would have got.
| Delay | picks | Odds movement | Tipster's yield | Your yield | Retained |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 min | 2 | 0.0% | +59.2% | +59.2% | 100% |
| 5 min | 2 | 0.0% | +59.2% | +59.2% | 100% |
| 15 min | 2 | 0.0% | +59.2% | +59.2% | 100% |
| 60 min | 2 | 0.0% | +59.2% | +59.2% | 100% |
Worked out from the market's own price history: for each pick we check which odds were still available after those minutes. Picks we could not measure are left out, and voided ones too. Odds shortening is not a bad sign — it usually means the market agreed with them.
Performance by competition
Where they build their record, and with what result, sorted by number of picks. The yield is the real, unweighted one, same as everywhere else on this page.
| Competition | picks | Accuracy | units | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serie B (Italia) | 2 | 50% | +1.2 | +59.2% |
▸ Rating breakdown
- Weighted yield
- 53.3 (59.2%)
- Consistency
- 50.0 (not enough periods to measure it)
- Calibrated CLV
- 49.7 (avg. CLV -2.33%)
- Discipline
- 69.4
Latest picks
- LOST
Serie B (Italia) — Juve Stabia vs Pisa SC — Empate
Odds 3.05sealed at Betfair Exchange - WON
Serie B (Italia) — Cesena FC vs Mantova 1911 — Empate
Odds 3.30sealed at Betfair Exchange
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